CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID Thu 22 Dec 06:00 - Fri 23 Dec 06:00 2005 (UTC)
ISSUED: 21 Dec 21:15 (UTC)
FORECASTER: GATZEN

SYNOPSIS

No significant changes since Wednesday ... broad trough placed over Europe ... filled with cold polar airmass. To the west ... upper high forms over western Europe ... and weak QG forcing as well as weak thermodynamic profiles do not support deep convection. To the north ... strong polar jet stream affects northwestern Europe ... and neutral to slightly unstable lapse rates are likely in the range of short-wave troughs ... filled with maritime airmass. However ... strong QF forcing and sufficient instability is not indicated by latest model output. Over Mediterranean ... weak QG forcing and quite dry low-level airmass do not support deep convection. However ... steep low-level lapse rates are present and a few showers and shallow thunderstorms may form. Severe storms are not expected given weak vertical wind shear and forcing. Chance for waterspouts should be enhanced where low-level moisture is relatively rich.

DISCUSSION

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